INFB: Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Slightly Down But Still Historically High

(Indiana Farm Bureau press release) 

(Indianapolis, IN) – Hoosiers gathering around the table for Thanksgiving dinner will find slight relief when it comes to purchasing ingredients, but the meal still reflects historically high costs.

Indiana Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving market basket survey shows that Hoosier shoppers can expect to spend approximately 2% less at the grocery store compared to 2023.

According to this year’s pricing survey, Hoosiers are paying an average of $53.31 for a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people, or $5.33 per person.

Indiana’s market basket price also is approximately 8% lower, 48 cents less, than the U.S. average price of $58.08, or $5.81 per person.

The cost is still 25% higher than it was five years ago, which highlights the impact inflation has had on food prices since the pandemic. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, this is on par with the track of cumulative inflation for food at home, which has increased by 26%.

According to INFB Chief Economist Todd Davis, a main driver of the decrease in Indiana is the lower cost of the turkey, which is also less than the national average this year. Shoppers can expect to pay approximately $1.33 per pound for a whole turkey, or $21.22 for a 16-pound bird, which is about 17% less expensive than the national average of $25.67.

“Indiana ranks third in turkey production, with more than 8.4 million turkeys in the state, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Census of Agriculture,” said Dr. Davis. “The turkey accounts for about 44% of the Thanksgiving dinner, so with Indiana in the heart of turkey production and with retail turkey prices down, it isn’t surprising that the turkey is more affordable this year, specifically in the Midwest. The concentration of turkey production in this region provides lower processing and marketing costs, which gets the turkey from the farm to the hands of the consumer efficiently.”

Another item that is less expensive this year is pumpkin pie filling. The cost for a 14-ounce package comes to $3.78, which is approximately 22% less than last year in Indiana. Pumpkin pie filling in Indiana is also about 9% less expensive than the 2024 U.S. average. Again, this can be attributed to Indiana’s proximity to pumpkin production, ranking second in pumpkin production in the country, according to USDA’s Census of Agriculture.

Half of the items in the market basket are less expensive for Hoosiers compared to last year, most notably pie shells and sweet potatoes. There are a few items that increased in price. The largest percentage price increase is for cranberries and whipping cream.

“Both of these products saw an increase in retail price, which is a product of supply and demand,” explained Dr. Davis. “Additionally, fluid milk production is down compared to last year, which correlates to an increase in prices for whipping cream and whole milk.”

Only sweet potatoes, cranberries and the veggie tray are more expensive in Indiana this year than they are nationally, with sweet potatoes about 18% more than the U.S. average. Dr. Davis noted that this could be a result of sweet potato production in the southern and western regions.

“Sweet potatoes also saw an increase in wholesale and retail prices nationally,” he continued. “Those retail prices can reflect transportation costs in moving goods from the farm to the grocery store. This highlights the collective impact of transportation costs, as well as labor, fuel and packaging, all of which are costs beyond the farm gate.”

According to the USDA, just 15.9 cents of every retail food dollar can be attributed to farm production, after accounting for input costs. Using this figure, the farmer’s share of this $53.31 market basket would be less than $8.50 The rest is for food processing, packaging, transportation, wholesale and retail distribution, and food service preparation.

“Growing the food families rely on for a Thanksgiving dinner can be a challenge for farmers because of input costs,” said Janis Highley, INFB 2nd vice president. “Just like consumers, farmers are price-takers, not price-makers, and the amount farmers are being paid doesn’t cover the increase of their input expenses.

“Nevertheless, Hoosier farmers find ways to streamline their operations and decrease costs of production. Many people don’t realize that Indiana is a top-producing state for turkey and pumpkins, so we have many local farmers to thank for our holiday meal this year. Turkeys also consume a significant amount of soybean and corn meal, top Hoosier farm commodities, so they’re important to our state’s economy too.”

The total market basket price of $53.31 includes a 16-pound turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, peas, a carrot and celery veggie tray, whole milk, cranberries, whipping cream, ingredients for pumpkin pie and miscellaneous baking items.

The INFB Thanksgiving market basket survey is conducted in early November by volunteer shoppers across the state who collected prices on specific food items from one of their local grocery stores. Volunteer shoppers were asked to look for the best possible prices, without taking advantage of special promotional coupons or purchase deals. Indiana’s survey is completed in conjunction with a national survey administered by the American Farm Bureau Federation.

More details about AFBF’s national Thanksgiving market basket results can be found here.